The Economics of Orbit Use: Open Access, External Costs, and Runaway Debris Growth
In this paper, we study the economics of satellite launches to understand the impact of the collision risk externality on the dynamics of orbit use. We show that autocatalytic debris growth may render Earth’s orbit unusable, an outcome known as Kessler Syndrome. In our benchmark calibration, Kessler Syndrome can emerge anytime between the year 2040 and the year 2184,